1997 Iowa was best H2H. The fact Penn State won by such a big margin this year shows they didn't have the same competition Iowa faced.
Okay, its a slow work day, so I'll bite. Let's do a head-to-head comparison, comparing weight classes with their -7 predecessors:
118/125 - Jesse Whitmer (Iowa), 1ST v. Braden Davis (PSU) DNP - If I remember correctly, Whitmer wasn't in Iowa's starting lineup until the Big Ten championships (or it was his only year as a starter) and came out of nowhere to go on one of the great runs in NCAA history, versus Davis, who was ranked/seeded #1 heading into NCAAs; Davis may still go on to a better career (although he'll have to compete with Figueroa and Stanich for the next three years, and that's if he doesn't eventually get beat out by Luke Lilledahl), but clearly the edge goes to IOWA here, but likely only by a decision;
126/133 - Mike Mena (1st) v. Aaron Nagao (DNP) - Mena had placed 7-3-5 at 118lbs before bumping up and finishing second in '97; Nagao finished 5th as a freshmen, but lost in the blood round this year, and with his style had a tendency to get caught on his back in losses, so let's say major decision, Iowa;
134/141 - Mike Ironside (1st) v. Beau Bartlett (2nd) - Ironside placed 6th and 3rd before winning the first of his two championships in '97; Bartlett was also 3rd as a sophomore before finishing second this season; edge to Iowa, but let's be honest, the match would be 1-1 with :15 secs left before Bartlett attacked and Ironside countered to win, just like every single other Bartlett match this season (or at least it certainly seemed that way);
142/149 - Kasey Gillis (6th) v. Tyler Kasak (3rd) - Gillis was the bridge between multi-time champions Bill Zadick and Jeff McGinnis, Kasak was the in-season replacement for Shane Van Ness; while Kasak's future is unclear with Van Ness's return, he already has a better resume than Gillis (who bumped up to 150 in '98 and went 0-2 at NCAAs) . . . decision Penn State;
150/157 - Lincoln McIlravy (1st) v. Levi Haines (1st) - Okay, things start to get interesting here. McIlravy won his 3rd title in '97, versus Haines, who went undefeated en route to what COULD be the first of three titles (although he'll have to win some battles against Meyer Shapiro to do so); edge to Iowa by a decision (McIlravy didn't get bonus points in any of his 3 finals wins, only one of which was against a former/future NCAA champion, an OT win against Chris Bono)
Intermission: If this were a dual, then so far we'd be 13-3 Iowa;
158/165 - Joe Williams (1st) v. Mitchell Mesenbrink (2nd) - This would be another interesting match, as if anybody could match the Gable-era Hawkeye's pace it is Mesenbrink; Williams won his 2nd championship in a 7-RS-1-1-1 career, and Mesenbrink looks like possible 3-time champ if Keegan O'Toole goes up to 174 next year (I think Ben Askren has said this is a "near certainty"); but still, Williams has to be the favorite, as he was more powerful than anybody Mesenbrink wrestled this year (a healthy Amine, maybe . . . ); edge Iowa;
167/174 - Mike Uker (5th) v Carter Starocci (1st) - A two-time All American vs. a four-time national champ . . . Decisive edge to Starocci, BUT . . . in his three previous championship runs from 2021-2023, Starocci only won by bonus points 4 times in 15 matches at the NCAA tournament; 3 times in first round matches and last year when he caught Labriola in the finals. So even if we assume a healthy Starocci (why not, we're already assuming we have a time machine . . .) then this would still only be a decision for Penn State;
177/184 - Tony Ersland (DNP) v. Bernie Truax (5th) - '97 was the future-Purdue coach's highwater mark, losing in the bloodround, and Truax's worst-tourney as well . . . finishing 5th after three straight 4th places; Truax wins, likely by major;
190/197 - Lee Fullhart (1st) v. Aaron Brooks (1st) - Another match between champions! Fullhart is underrated, having finished 4-1-3-2 in his career, but Brooks is an all-timer, and I don't think there's any case but clear edge to Penn State here; For argument's sake, however, let's say Fullhart is comparable to Trent Hidlay (2-5-4-2), so Brooks only wins by regular decision;
HWT - Wes Hand (DNP) v. Greg Kerkvliet (1st) - Hand lost in the blood round in '97, and would go on to place twice (8th in '98, 2nd in '00), but in addition to placing all four years (7-4-2-1), Kerkvliet has 11 bonus wins over those tournaments, so it is likely at least a major for Penn State.
If you add this all up, it is 5-5 on matches, but Penn State's upper weights are likely more dominant than Iowa's lightweights, who just didn't get a ton of bonus points. (Yes, it is easier to get bonus points this year with the rule changes, but Brooks and Kerkvliet were dominating under the old rules. Iowa definitely had two all-timers in McIlravy and Williams, but they'd be facing two possible all-timers in Haines and Mesenbrink. So in my view, head-to-head Penn State wins 17-16.
