Post by mvmm20 on Oct 24, 2023 8:02:53 GMT -5
With Super 32 and the VAWA Preseason Classic in the rear view, these aren't "Way" Too Early anymore, as the majority of last year's state placers have now competed in the fall. Only 39% -- 53 of 135 -- of state qualifiers have competed, however, so there is still a lot of uncertainty with regards to eventual weights, and these rankings should be taken with a large grain of salt.
Three preliminary notes:
- My understanding of the VHSL reclassifications means Mountain View, Brooke Point, Stafford, Deep Run, and Glen Allen are moving up from 5A, while Ocean Lakes, Kellam, and Franklin County are moving down. Please let me if I'm in error or missing any schools.
- Second, as I did two years ago, my methodology here is roughly: '22 Place < Offseason Wins < 23 Place, with adjustments for head-to-head wins, which hopefully reduces the subjectivity of the rankings. If nobody else takes this on on an official basis, I'll update these after Thanksgiving to reflect published rosters before the season's opening weekend.
- Finally, freshmen are inevitably underrepresented in preseason rankings because: a) We generally don't know which schools/weights they'll be representing yet, and b) Unless they competed in 16U and actually wrestled returning state qualifiers, it is hard to compare placing 1st/2nd in VAWA 14U with, say, finishing 3rd in Region 6B. There will be more freshmen ranked once the season starts and we have some results to work with.
With that said, here you go:
106 lbs
1. Caden Smith, Robinson (Sr.)
2. Carter Shin, Chantilly (So.)
3. Thomas Stottlemeyer, Glen Allen (So.)
4. Basleale Mulugeta, Washington-Liberty (Sr.)
5. Jonathan French, Thomas Jefferson (Jr.)
6. Cash Crosby, Gainesville (So.)
Honorable Mention: Royce Wetzler (Cosby, Fr.) has placed second in the North Carolina Super 32 Early Entry and the I-64 Fall Classic but hasn’t wrestled against any other ranked VA 6A wrestlers yet to get a clearer idea of where he should rank.
113 lbs
1. **Cadell Lee**, Brooke Point (Jr.)
2. Ezekiel Keel, Chantilly (Jr.)
3. Cambyses Khani, Yorktown (Jr.)
4. John Stottlemyer, Glen Allen (Jr.)
5. Brandon Cynar, Western Branch (So.)
6. Dylan Hagen, Robinson (So.)
Note – I know, I know, I know . . . There are reports that Lee has moved with his family to Japan and will not be competing in VA this season. However, unlike Robert Kucharckz (registered for Tyrant Duals and Super 32 as Lake Highland Prep, FL) and Miles Sanderson (now on Paul VI’s football roster) there isn’t a paper trail for this yet. If Lee isn’t on Brooke Point’s roster when it is released next month, I’ll update the final preseason rankings accordingly, in which case Keel (whose last competition was Journeymen at 113) would be the clear favorite. Also, with potentially as few as 6 state qualifiers returning, this is a class where a lot of freshmen can make their mark.
120 lbs
1. Benjamin Levy, Marshall (Sr.)
2. Logan Katz, Battlefield (So.)
3. David Dight, Edison (So.)
4. Chase Beltz, Brooke Point (Jr.)
5. Erik Gavares, Freedom-South Riding (Jr.)
6. Dylan Divver, Patriot (Jr.)
HM: Ryan Saunders (Battlefield, Jr.) would be 4th if Katz weren’t slotted here . . . although Saunders made 115 in the spring, his last VA weigh-in was at 120 for VACWs.
Note - Divver was a 3A state qualifier last year for Waynesboro who registered and wore a Patriot singlet while taking 2nd at the VAWA Preseason Classic last weekend.
Note 2 – Dight hasn’t wrestled this fall, and his last weigh-in was at 120 for VA 16U Freestyle in May.
126 lbs
1. Jerry Simon, Deep Run (Sr.)
2. Eli Cramer, Cosby (Sr.)
3. Nicholas Sanders, Mountain View (Sr.)
4. Hayato Otero, Landstown (Jr.)
5. Carson Easlick, Westfield (So.)
6. Darren Hicks, West Springfield (Sr.)
HM – Stefan Hernandez (Centreville, Sr.) is a three-time state placer who took 6th last year. Problem is that everybody ranked 1-5 placed higher last season, and whereas Hernandez doesn’t appear to have wrestled since 6A States, Hicks also took 6th last year and just won the VAWA Preseason, so gets the very slight nod.
Note – With 7 state placers (8 if you include James Lidgard, 7th in VISAA as an 8th grader and reportedly wrestling for Grassfield this year), this weight class is stacked, and is topped by two state champions (Cramer, 3x, and Simon in ’22) and a two-time runner-up who’d likely be a two-time champ if not for facing Cadell Lee in the 5A finals two years in a row. Although Simon lost twice at the I64 Fall Classic, he gets the nod here for his head-to-head wins against Cramer last season . . . but wow, this could be an exciting weight.
132 lbs
1. Tyler Traves, Mountain View (So.)
2. Tristan Corbin, Robinson (Sr.)
3. Brendan Sholders, Westfield (Jr.)
4. Benjamin Aguilar, Brooke Point (So.)
5. Ben Rubin, Thomas Jefferson (Sr.)
6. Carter Harris, Battlefield (Sr.)
HM – Mountain View’s Benjamin Meinert (2nd in 5A at 132) and Geoff Whelan (4th in 5A at 126, wrestled 132 at Super 132), either of whom would rank 2nd behind Corbin if Traves - who won 5A at 145 but recently competed at 132 for both the Journeymen and Super 32 - moves up . . . oh, to have Mountain View’s problems. . .
Note – Another killer weight class, with potentially three returning state champs (Traves; Corbin in ’21 and ’23; Rubin in ’21 and runner-up in ’22 before injury defaulting out of States last year); Traves gets the nod because of superior regional/national results, winning USA Wrestling Folkstyle and placing 3rd at NHSCAs in the spring, and placing at Cadet Nationals in Fargo.
138 lbs
1. Chase Van Hoven, Brooke Point (Jr.)
2. Michael Phoutasen, Landstown (Jr.)
3. Matthew Arndt, Battlefield (So.)
4. Dominic Castrejon (Jr.)/Branden Kiraly (Jr.), Mountain View
5. Adonis Iparraguire, Chantilly (Jr.)
6. Aiden Sanders, South Lakes (Jr.)
HM – William Etu (Stafford, So.) came a match away from placing at 5A, 120lbs last season.
Note – Again, a potential embarrassment of riches for Mountain View, with Castrejon taking 5th in 5A last year, and Kiraly winning VAWA Folkstyle and finishing 2nd at VACW SuperStates and 16U Freestyle.
144 lbs
1. Jayden Loveranes, South Lakes (Sr.)
2. Pierre Portes, Western Branch (Sr.)
3. Wiley Harris, C.D. Hylton (Jr.)
4. Steven Stotler, Woodbridge (Jr.)
5. Jackson Lambert, Cosby (Sr.)
6. Harry Gitlin, Colgan (Sr.)
Note – With Loveranes potentially the only state placer returning, Harris the only returning regional finalist, and no other wrestlers having won more than one match at States, this weight is pretty wide open for now. Unofficially, I have 7 wrestlers who placed at 138 or 144 last year currently bumping up to 150 or 157. Whoever bumps up for Mountain View (Castrejohn?Kiraly?) will likely slot 2nd here.
150 lbs
1. Benjamin Weader, Chantilly (Jr.)
2. Matox Allen, Grassfield (Sr.)
3. Blake Jones, Mountain View (Jr.)
4. Gabriel Cortes, Stafford (Sr.)
5. Monte Sanchez, C.D. Hylton (Sr.)
6. Matt Gashi-Brito, Fairfax (Sr.)
HM – Jeremiah SeGraves (West Potomac, Jr., 6th at 138lbs), and Christopher Hamm (Woodbridge, So.) and Cael Sandberg (Colonial Forge, Sr.) both a match away from placing in 2023.
Note – Potentially another super-competitive weight, with returning 144lbs champ Weader leading seven returning state placers.
157 lbs
1. Brady Calderwood, Herndon (Sr.)
2. Augustus Fleming, Brooke Point (Sr.)
3. Colin Jackson, Hayfield (Jr.)
4. Alek Martinez, Oakton (Sr.)
5. Khangal Dulguun, Washington-Liberty (Sr.)
6. Jordy Lopez-Funes, Annandale (Jr.)
165 lbs
1. Nana Utsey, Glen Allen (Jr.)
2. Elijah Beltran, Mountain View (Sr.)
3. Jake Brubaker, Westfield (So.)
4. Lucas Matheny, Lake Braddock (Sr.)
5. Shane Givens, Highland Springs (Jr.)
6. Patrick Gordon, Freedom-South Riding (Sr.)
HM – Jacob Charlesworth (Lake Braddock, Sr.) would rank 6th if Matheny bumps up.
175 lbs
1. Corey Bell, Mountain View (Sr.)
2. Robert Ronsckvitz, Langley (Jr.)
3. Alex Klos, Battlefield (Jr.)
4. Dalton Thayer, Cosby (Sr.)
5. Bryce Flanders, Colgan (Sr.)
Note – Yes, I’m only ranking five wrestlers here, as they are the only returning state qualifiers at this weigh so far, and none of the other wrestlers who placed either 5th or 6th in regionals have any offseason results to separate themselves from the others for the sixth spot.
HM – Ryan Gioffre (Battlefield, Sr.) would be ranked 4th here if Klos moves up.
190 lbs
1. Harry Maltese, Fairfax (So.)
2. Jon DeMarco, Gainesville (Sr.)
3. Ryan Matheny, Lake Braddock (Sr.)
4. William Lewey, McLean (Jr.)
5. Ethan Osbourn, Hayfield (Jr.)
6. Michael Rivetti, Chantilly (Sr.)
Note – Although Maltese took 3rd at 215lbs last year, he was bumped up in the lineup because Fairfax had a state champion at 190lbs and made 85kg (187lbs) for the U.S. Open 15U division in the spring. Unfortunately, this division loses Kucharczk (Robinson, state champ at 175) and Sanderson (Oakton, 5th at 190) to transfer. Matheny missed the postseason last season, but beat Lewey at the NOVA Classic.
HM – Although Mohammed El-Hajj (Fairfax) failed to make States last season, he has been very active offseason, beat Rivetti at the VA Super 32, and would likely slot in at 5th if Maltese bumps up to 215 again.
215 lbs
1. Trent Pane, Lake Braddock (Jr.)
2. Sean Pena, Centreville (Sr.)
3. Temuulen Myagmarjargal, Freedom-South Riding (Jr.)
4. Abdul Mosawir Nasratyar, Gar-Field (Sr.)
5. John Drury, McLean (Sr.)
6. Ethan Lebkisher, Marshall (Jr.)
HM – Edgar Lagos Flores (John Lewis, Sr.) won two matches at States last year.
Note – After the very clear, very solid top two, this weight descends into a tangled web of head-to-head match-ups, so a lot could change here over the course of the new season.
285 lbs
1. James Bland, Cosby (Jr.)
2. Nasir Edmonds, Landstown (Sr.)
3. Clay Bachman, Mountain View (Sr.)
4. Soren Pirhoun, Marshall (Sr.)
5. Joseph Lubinskas, Battlefield (Sr.)
6. Christopher Funches, Grassfield
Note: A very good case could be made for Bachman -- 4th in '22; 8th at NHSCA -- as number one, but for now I'm sticking to ranking by last year's state placing absent head-to-head results to the contrary. Regardless, this is a talented group of heavyweights (Pirhoun and Lubinskas were both active offseason) that will be fun to watch compete.
1. Caden Smith, Robinson (Sr.)
2. Carter Shin, Chantilly (So.)
3. Thomas Stottlemeyer, Glen Allen (So.)
4. Basleale Mulugeta, Washington-Liberty (Sr.)
5. Jonathan French, Thomas Jefferson (Jr.)
6. Cash Crosby, Gainesville (So.)
Honorable Mention: Royce Wetzler (Cosby, Fr.) has placed second in the North Carolina Super 32 Early Entry and the I-64 Fall Classic but hasn’t wrestled against any other ranked VA 6A wrestlers yet to get a clearer idea of where he should rank.
113 lbs
1. **Cadell Lee**, Brooke Point (Jr.)
2. Ezekiel Keel, Chantilly (Jr.)
3. Cambyses Khani, Yorktown (Jr.)
4. John Stottlemyer, Glen Allen (Jr.)
5. Brandon Cynar, Western Branch (So.)
6. Dylan Hagen, Robinson (So.)
Note – I know, I know, I know . . . There are reports that Lee has moved with his family to Japan and will not be competing in VA this season. However, unlike Robert Kucharckz (registered for Tyrant Duals and Super 32 as Lake Highland Prep, FL) and Miles Sanderson (now on Paul VI’s football roster) there isn’t a paper trail for this yet. If Lee isn’t on Brooke Point’s roster when it is released next month, I’ll update the final preseason rankings accordingly, in which case Keel (whose last competition was Journeymen at 113) would be the clear favorite. Also, with potentially as few as 6 state qualifiers returning, this is a class where a lot of freshmen can make their mark.
120 lbs
1. Benjamin Levy, Marshall (Sr.)
2. Logan Katz, Battlefield (So.)
3. David Dight, Edison (So.)
4. Chase Beltz, Brooke Point (Jr.)
5. Erik Gavares, Freedom-South Riding (Jr.)
6. Dylan Divver, Patriot (Jr.)
HM: Ryan Saunders (Battlefield, Jr.) would be 4th if Katz weren’t slotted here . . . although Saunders made 115 in the spring, his last VA weigh-in was at 120 for VACWs.
Note - Divver was a 3A state qualifier last year for Waynesboro who registered and wore a Patriot singlet while taking 2nd at the VAWA Preseason Classic last weekend.
Note 2 – Dight hasn’t wrestled this fall, and his last weigh-in was at 120 for VA 16U Freestyle in May.
126 lbs
1. Jerry Simon, Deep Run (Sr.)
2. Eli Cramer, Cosby (Sr.)
3. Nicholas Sanders, Mountain View (Sr.)
4. Hayato Otero, Landstown (Jr.)
5. Carson Easlick, Westfield (So.)
6. Darren Hicks, West Springfield (Sr.)
HM – Stefan Hernandez (Centreville, Sr.) is a three-time state placer who took 6th last year. Problem is that everybody ranked 1-5 placed higher last season, and whereas Hernandez doesn’t appear to have wrestled since 6A States, Hicks also took 6th last year and just won the VAWA Preseason, so gets the very slight nod.
Note – With 7 state placers (8 if you include James Lidgard, 7th in VISAA as an 8th grader and reportedly wrestling for Grassfield this year), this weight class is stacked, and is topped by two state champions (Cramer, 3x, and Simon in ’22) and a two-time runner-up who’d likely be a two-time champ if not for facing Cadell Lee in the 5A finals two years in a row. Although Simon lost twice at the I64 Fall Classic, he gets the nod here for his head-to-head wins against Cramer last season . . . but wow, this could be an exciting weight.
132 lbs
1. Tyler Traves, Mountain View (So.)
2. Tristan Corbin, Robinson (Sr.)
3. Brendan Sholders, Westfield (Jr.)
4. Benjamin Aguilar, Brooke Point (So.)
5. Ben Rubin, Thomas Jefferson (Sr.)
6. Carter Harris, Battlefield (Sr.)
HM – Mountain View’s Benjamin Meinert (2nd in 5A at 132) and Geoff Whelan (4th in 5A at 126, wrestled 132 at Super 132), either of whom would rank 2nd behind Corbin if Traves - who won 5A at 145 but recently competed at 132 for both the Journeymen and Super 32 - moves up . . . oh, to have Mountain View’s problems. . .
Note – Another killer weight class, with potentially three returning state champs (Traves; Corbin in ’21 and ’23; Rubin in ’21 and runner-up in ’22 before injury defaulting out of States last year); Traves gets the nod because of superior regional/national results, winning USA Wrestling Folkstyle and placing 3rd at NHSCAs in the spring, and placing at Cadet Nationals in Fargo.
138 lbs
1. Chase Van Hoven, Brooke Point (Jr.)
2. Michael Phoutasen, Landstown (Jr.)
3. Matthew Arndt, Battlefield (So.)
4. Dominic Castrejon (Jr.)/Branden Kiraly (Jr.), Mountain View
5. Adonis Iparraguire, Chantilly (Jr.)
6. Aiden Sanders, South Lakes (Jr.)
HM – William Etu (Stafford, So.) came a match away from placing at 5A, 120lbs last season.
Note – Again, a potential embarrassment of riches for Mountain View, with Castrejon taking 5th in 5A last year, and Kiraly winning VAWA Folkstyle and finishing 2nd at VACW SuperStates and 16U Freestyle.
144 lbs
1. Jayden Loveranes, South Lakes (Sr.)
2. Pierre Portes, Western Branch (Sr.)
3. Wiley Harris, C.D. Hylton (Jr.)
4. Steven Stotler, Woodbridge (Jr.)
5. Jackson Lambert, Cosby (Sr.)
6. Harry Gitlin, Colgan (Sr.)
Note – With Loveranes potentially the only state placer returning, Harris the only returning regional finalist, and no other wrestlers having won more than one match at States, this weight is pretty wide open for now. Unofficially, I have 7 wrestlers who placed at 138 or 144 last year currently bumping up to 150 or 157. Whoever bumps up for Mountain View (Castrejohn?Kiraly?) will likely slot 2nd here.
150 lbs
1. Benjamin Weader, Chantilly (Jr.)
2. Matox Allen, Grassfield (Sr.)
3. Blake Jones, Mountain View (Jr.)
4. Gabriel Cortes, Stafford (Sr.)
5. Monte Sanchez, C.D. Hylton (Sr.)
6. Matt Gashi-Brito, Fairfax (Sr.)
HM – Jeremiah SeGraves (West Potomac, Jr., 6th at 138lbs), and Christopher Hamm (Woodbridge, So.) and Cael Sandberg (Colonial Forge, Sr.) both a match away from placing in 2023.
Note – Potentially another super-competitive weight, with returning 144lbs champ Weader leading seven returning state placers.
157 lbs
1. Brady Calderwood, Herndon (Sr.)
2. Augustus Fleming, Brooke Point (Sr.)
3. Colin Jackson, Hayfield (Jr.)
4. Alek Martinez, Oakton (Sr.)
5. Khangal Dulguun, Washington-Liberty (Sr.)
6. Jordy Lopez-Funes, Annandale (Jr.)
165 lbs
1. Nana Utsey, Glen Allen (Jr.)
2. Elijah Beltran, Mountain View (Sr.)
3. Jake Brubaker, Westfield (So.)
4. Lucas Matheny, Lake Braddock (Sr.)
5. Shane Givens, Highland Springs (Jr.)
6. Patrick Gordon, Freedom-South Riding (Sr.)
HM – Jacob Charlesworth (Lake Braddock, Sr.) would rank 6th if Matheny bumps up.
175 lbs
1. Corey Bell, Mountain View (Sr.)
2. Robert Ronsckvitz, Langley (Jr.)
3. Alex Klos, Battlefield (Jr.)
4. Dalton Thayer, Cosby (Sr.)
5. Bryce Flanders, Colgan (Sr.)
Note – Yes, I’m only ranking five wrestlers here, as they are the only returning state qualifiers at this weigh so far, and none of the other wrestlers who placed either 5th or 6th in regionals have any offseason results to separate themselves from the others for the sixth spot.
HM – Ryan Gioffre (Battlefield, Sr.) would be ranked 4th here if Klos moves up.
190 lbs
1. Harry Maltese, Fairfax (So.)
2. Jon DeMarco, Gainesville (Sr.)
3. Ryan Matheny, Lake Braddock (Sr.)
4. William Lewey, McLean (Jr.)
5. Ethan Osbourn, Hayfield (Jr.)
6. Michael Rivetti, Chantilly (Sr.)
Note – Although Maltese took 3rd at 215lbs last year, he was bumped up in the lineup because Fairfax had a state champion at 190lbs and made 85kg (187lbs) for the U.S. Open 15U division in the spring. Unfortunately, this division loses Kucharczk (Robinson, state champ at 175) and Sanderson (Oakton, 5th at 190) to transfer. Matheny missed the postseason last season, but beat Lewey at the NOVA Classic.
HM – Although Mohammed El-Hajj (Fairfax) failed to make States last season, he has been very active offseason, beat Rivetti at the VA Super 32, and would likely slot in at 5th if Maltese bumps up to 215 again.
215 lbs
1. Trent Pane, Lake Braddock (Jr.)
2. Sean Pena, Centreville (Sr.)
3. Temuulen Myagmarjargal, Freedom-South Riding (Jr.)
4. Abdul Mosawir Nasratyar, Gar-Field (Sr.)
5. John Drury, McLean (Sr.)
6. Ethan Lebkisher, Marshall (Jr.)
HM – Edgar Lagos Flores (John Lewis, Sr.) won two matches at States last year.
Note – After the very clear, very solid top two, this weight descends into a tangled web of head-to-head match-ups, so a lot could change here over the course of the new season.
285 lbs
1. James Bland, Cosby (Jr.)
2. Nasir Edmonds, Landstown (Sr.)
3. Clay Bachman, Mountain View (Sr.)
4. Soren Pirhoun, Marshall (Sr.)
5. Joseph Lubinskas, Battlefield (Sr.)
6. Christopher Funches, Grassfield
Note: A very good case could be made for Bachman -- 4th in '22; 8th at NHSCA -- as number one, but for now I'm sticking to ranking by last year's state placing absent head-to-head results to the contrary. Regardless, this is a talented group of heavyweights (Pirhoun and Lubinskas were both active offseason) that will be fun to watch compete.
Team (Tournament Placement Points Only, i.e. 1st=14pts, 2nd=10pts, 3rd=8pts, 4th=7pts 5th=4pts, 6th=3pts)
1. Mountain View (69pts)
2. Brooke Point (52 . . .38 w/o Lee)
3. Chantilly (41 . . . 45 w/o Lee)
4. Cosby (35)
5. Battlefield (33)
6t. Glen Allen (29)
6t. Lake Braddock (29)
8t. Landstown (27)
8t. Robinson (27)
10. Marshall (24)
1. Mountain View (69pts)
2. Brooke Point (52 . . .38 w/o Lee)
3. Chantilly (41 . . . 45 w/o Lee)
4. Cosby (35)
5. Battlefield (33)
6t. Glen Allen (29)
6t. Lake Braddock (29)
8t. Landstown (27)
8t. Robinson (27)
10. Marshall (24)